[ACX2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
[ACX2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
Basic
0
Jan 2
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 people. The detonation can occur for any reason, including tests and accidents.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?
18% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?"
33% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
51% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?"
41% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
72% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
65% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?
50% chance