Who will be hired by Manifold before 2025?
Who will be hired by Manifold before 2025?
Basic
0
Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
33%
Benjamin Cosman
33%
Saul Munn
33%
Isaac King
Manifold seems to have started making interviews for people!
The first person so far to have one is Benjamin Cosman, a current teaching faculty at the University of Illinois.
Feel free to add anyone here. If you got an interview with Manifold, I'll add you here.
This is on a longer timeline.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
50% chance
Will Manifold parse the date in this question by 2024?
50% chance
Will Manifold Markets have an official launch on or before Jan 25th?
34% chance
[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
80% chance
[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all tr...ety reasons, before 2026?
50% chance
Will Manifold Markets require Proof of Humanity by the end of 2022?
62% chance
Will Manifold launch a crypto token before April?
28% chance
Who will be our next full time employee?
Will Manifold Markets win an Emergent Ventures grant?
30% chance
Who will I date next for at least 2 months (from Manifold dating)?