Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
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-If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen.
-"Any class" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count.
-The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division.
-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc, and if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question.
-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned "male" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned "male" at birth unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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