Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
Basic
2
Ṁ102
Sep 2
51%
chance
-If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen. -"Any class" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count. -The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division. -This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc, and if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question. -In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned "male" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned "male" at birth unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.
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